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But with the market at an all-time high, now is probably a good time to hedge against potential downside, experts say. That's especially the case because there's an elevated degree of risk facing stocks, and the cost of some insurance measures is historically cheap. Related storiesThe S&P 500 also looks overextended on a technical basis, according to many measures. AdvertisementRosenberg Research"The definition of a stretched market is one when the S&P 500 gaps 14% or more above the 200-day trendline. Beyond extreme, in fact — back to 1928, the S&P 500 has only drifted this far above the moving average 7% of the time," Rosenberg said.
Persons: Jim Smigiel, they've, Louis Fed, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Steve Sosnick, we're, Smigiel, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bank of America's, Survey, Bank of America, SEI, Fed, Louis Fed Inflation, MRB Partners, Rebels, Rosenberg Research, Interactive Brokers Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Suez
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailProbability of a market bubble is fragmented, says MRB's Phillip ColmarPhillip Colmar, Managing Partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners, discusses mega-cap tech, the broader markets, and interest rate expectations.
Persons: MRB's Phillip Colmar Phillip Colmar Organizations: MRB Partners
Fuji and Tokyo skyline Jackyenjoyphotography | Moment | Getty ImagesJapan's Nikkei stock index has been on a record-breaking spree on the back of robust earnings and investor-friendly measures. But the country's ailing economy has experts divided over this sustainability of this rally. Japan's corporate governance reforms have been a key driver for the country's stock markets, Momma said, while stressing that stock indexes do not necessarily represent the entire economy that includes SMEs and households. SMEs are a critical lever in the Japanese economy, accounting for 70% of national employment and 50% of the country's economic growth. "Spillover from the global boom of AI-related stocks certainly helped Nikkei," Momma said.
Persons: Kazuo Momma, Momma, Sayuri Shirai, pare, Shirai, Phillip Colmar MRB Organizations: Nikkei, Mizuho Research, CNBC, Bank of Japan, Nvidia, Technology, Stock, Keio University, Bank of America, Phillip Colmar MRB Partners Locations: Fuji, Tokyo, Germany, Japan, U.S, China
Megacap tech stocks aren't just powering the U.S. stock market — they're also holding the world together. U.S. equities now comprise 70% of the MSCI World Index, the benchmark for large- and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets. The MSCI World Index shifts regional and country weights based on broader economic trends. High levels of market concentration in the late 1920s to early 1930s, as well as 2000, coincided with a market top, he noted. The Europe Stoxx 600 has risen only 2.6% year to date, underperforming the U.S. broad market index.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Peter Berezin, Berezin, NVDA, Phillip Colmar, that's, Mike Dickson, Dickson, Warren Buffett's, Colmar, It's, you've, Germany DAX Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, BCA Research, Big Tech, MRB Partners, Horizon Investments, Nikkei, British FTSE, France CAC Locations: U.S, Europe, Colmar, Japan, Asia, Germany, France
"If there is a regime shift, then what has worked could be quite different from what does work," McLennan said. That means the growth stocks that dominated for years may come back to earth in the mid-2020s. He also recommends that investors diversify away from growth stocks that thrived under low rates and instead broaden out to value-oriented names. Valuations explain 80% of a stock's returns over a decade, according to Bank of America. Smead sees energy in stocks in Canada also outperforming in the coming decade, as well as European banks.
Persons: , Peter Bates, Rowe Price, Damanick Dantes, We're, Dantes, you've, He's, Matt McLennan, McLennan, Kimball Brooker, Morningstar, Nicola Stafford, Stafford, it's, Molina, Bates, Russell, Cole Smead, that's, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, Bob Doll, Doll, Smead, Michael Sheldon, Sheldon, who's, there's, Chris Chen, Chen, Roth Organizations: Service, Business, Global, International, McLennan, First Eagle Global Fund, Eagle Investments, Goldman, Asset Management, Stock, Molina Healthcare, Vanguard Value, Healthcare, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth Management, MRB Partners, Canadian, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Energy, P Bank ETF, RDM Financial, Social Security, Social, Insight Financial, Trust, IRA Locations: Canada, Colmar, United States, Canadian, Europe, Treasuries
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is hovering close to 5%, the highest level in 16 years. Here's what history says about the rise in US bond yields and where Treasurys may be headed next. AdvertisementAdvertisementDuring the 1980s and 1990s, he explained, the 10-year Treasury yield was roughly two times inflation expectations, represented by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. As for where the key bond yield heads next, history points to an answer there, too. There's a less than 1% probability, he says, that the 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.5% barring any significant revision higher in inflation expectations.
Persons: , Christoph Schon, Treasurys, Schon, " Schon, Jerome Powell, there's, Phillip Colmar, Adam Phillips Organizations: Treasury, Barclays, Service, Fed, MRB Partners, Wealth, Federal Locations: Ukraine, New York
The asset manager said the 10-year Treasury yield will probably hit 5%. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US Treasury market is still in for big swings of volatility, which could push the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond to 5%, according to BlackRock. "We have been underweight long-term US Treasuries since late 2020 as we saw the new macro regime heralding higher rates. Over the short-term though, Treasury yields are likely to experience more volatility, potentially swinging in both directions. But the economy is still under pressure from higher Treasury yields, which also work to tighten the screws on financial conditions.
Persons: , Phillip Colmar Organizations: US Treasury, BlackRock, Service, Treasury, MRB Partners, Fed Locations: BlackRock
Stocks could continue to gain momentum in the week ahead as traders turn their attention to earnings results after the past week's softer inflation news. The major benchmarks are headed for a positive week Friday after encouraging consumer and wholesale inflation in June cemented the likelihood that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its rate-hiking campaign. Some market participants expect this period could mark the trough for earnings, and urge traders to pay more attention to forward guidance. "And that's a great sign for the market and market health." ET: NAHB housing market index (July) Earnings: Bank of America , Morgan Stanley , Bank of N.Y. Mellon , Lockheed Martin , PNC Financial , J.B. Hunt Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Sage, Rob Williams, Sam Stovall, gee, Stovall, It's, Yung, Yu Ma, MRB, Sage Advisory's Williams, Williams, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Baird's Ross Mayfield, Lockheed Martin, Baker Hughes, Goldman Sachs, Kinder Morgan, Equifax, Johnson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Reserve, Open, BMO Wealth Management's, MRB Partners, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Investors, Bank, N.Y, Mellon, Lockheed, PNC Financial, J.B, Hunt, Housing, Nasdaq, Citizens Financial, Halliburton, Las Vegas Sands, IBM, Tesla, Netflix, American Airlines, United Airlines, CSX, Comerica, PPG, Roper Technologies, American Locations: Wells Fargo, Silicon Valley, Las Vegas, Horton
"We're going to have a spending boom in China, at least in the first half of the year," said Mehran Nakhjavani, emerging market strategist at MRB Partners. How to play emerging markets in 2023 Regardless, there are several ways for investors to get exposure to emerging markets. Perhaps the easiest way is by investing in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). Another vehicle through which to play emerging markets is the First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDex ETF (FEMS) . The fund is the best-performing emerging markets ETF this year, according to Morningstar, with a year-to-date return of just over 1%.
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